Post
Topic
Board Securities
Re: ASICMINER: Entering the Future of ASIC Mining by Inventing It
by
Another User
on 03/06/2014, 17:42:38 UTC
I used to be very bullish as well, but do acknowledge that the expectations and numbers from January (0.35J/GH/s, March delivery, weaker competition) need to be re-evaluated. I invite you to present a calculation based on those new premises.

An excellent idea because what happening here is that you are lowering the numbers of profit margins (which is fair) but keeping the costs at a fixed amount (which is not always true). Production costs for wafers/chips, at a general understanding, decreases overtime on older, larger die sizes AND varies on the quantity produced. As quoted from a previous friedcat post, the going rate was "<$0.2/GH" at the time (Nov '13) and aimed for March '14 delivery. If the "costs" go down, the savings can be passed on the buyers via a lower rate and providing incentives for more purchases.

It has been stated that chip sales will continue until it was more profitable to mine and resources would be adjusted accordingly. Now, if the margins have dropped due to various mentioned reasons, wouldn't the mining start already and the sales stopped?

Because it's too much fun, I'll humor your scenario: Let's say that the production costs are fixed at the $0.2 a GH, as you say, and they decide to continue flooding the market with decreasing profit margins in the coming months. That then eliminates any potential franchisees with such a high network rate (wasted funds on immersion cooling Cry)and any revenue from self-mining (no moar GH/s for me?  Sad). At this going rate, chip production can't continue and AM is bankrupt before Gen4 can even begin (about Aug/Sept '14 in this scenario). GG Bitfury & Spondoolies. But hey, you're right: it's not a pretty picture when you're using estimated Nov '13 costs with estimated April/May '14 profit margins. I would dump my shares too if friedcat was that short-sighted.

Now the question we are all wondering now is what has been the production costs of April & May and will be in June & July. We're not going to get an answer to that but it is safe to extrapolate here that if they can afford to have lower prices, it is due to the lower production cost. Otherwise friedcat = big dummy.

Don't get me wrong, I get what you're doing and I'm picking up the cheap shares as well  Wink