My personal experience lies in comparing my dealings with both e-gold and MtGox. In both cases I got out with no loss of funds before the collapse. The difference is how I managed to get out. In the case of e-gold I had to convert my gold into CAD and take delivery of the CAD. In the case of MTGox I had to convert my CAD to BTC and take delivery of my BTC. In both cases I ended up keeping the "delivered" form of money, CAD for e-gold, BTC for MTGox.
Yeah, just like I got my bitcoin out of bitcoin-24.com when they collapsed.
People who were in FIAT are still waiting for their money. (after more than a year).
The crucial point here is that gold is far worse than fiat in this context. So for ease of taking delivery we have
Best: Bitcoin and other crypto-currecnies
Middle: Fiat currencies USD, CAD, EUR etc.
Worst: Precious metals, gold, silver etc.
There is a reason why fiat was invented in the first place.
This is one of the reasons I expect both a very strong bull market in Bitcoin combined with a brutal bear market in gold and other precious metals. So we could see BTC / USD in the 100,000 to 1 million range or higher and 1 oz of gold dropping to 500 USD or even below 100 USD. In effect a major transfer of wealth from gold to Bitcoin, kind of like the move from horse powered transportation to motor transportation 110 years ago.
I agree that bitcoin wins out in this sense.
I have read though, in Rickards The Death of Money, that the gameplan of the big power blocs seems to be to drive down the price of PM's. One benefit of this is that the China's & Russia's can cheaply increase their gold holdings. Once it gets to 2.7 - 3 % of GDP, then, barring any kind of market crisis, the stage is set for the IMF to introduce SDR's which will include gold in the basket of currencies it is based on. This would significantly increase the fiat price of gold. Implicit to this is that the USD will cede its status as reserve currency.
In this case it might be gold up, bitcoin up?
This assumes that gold would be included in the SDR. The SDR is defined in terms of fiat currencies and does not include a gold component. In any case I just do not see the "big power blocks" or "gold is a barbarous relic" school of thought suddenly embracing gold. The real demand for gold has been from the Austrian / Libertarian or "real money" school of thought not the Keynesian / central banker side. The trouble for gold is that Austrian / Libertarian or "real money" capital could very easily flee en mass to Bitcoin. In addition there is the indication that gold is due for a big correction, without even considering Bitcoin. If one takes a look at the inflation adjusted price of gold over the last 100 years http://inflationdata.com/Inflation/images/charts/Gold/Gold_inflation_chart.htm one sees a double top developing. If one puts all of this together one has the perfect storm for a brutal bear market in precious metals.
As for industrial uses of gold such as circuit boards yes it exists, but it is very small compared to the monetary value of gold. I lived through the gold bear market of 1980 - 2000, which coincided with the rise of personal computer and the Internet. Still gold went from over 800 USD per ounce to close to 200 USD per once in 20 years, and this is in terms of the depreciating USD. The next gold bear could be worse.
No, gold is not in the SDR basket at the moment, but Rickards being a gold / real money guy, writes that the reason for the stockpiling since 09 is that it will be. The IMF has the only clean balance sheet that could accommodate a larger crisis and they would do print by way of SDR (including Gold USD, UKP, Yuan, Euro). I tend to listen to him as Currency Wars has been largely accurate and DoM seems to be continuing that.
Some other points you raised are also interesting: that gold money could seek refuge in bitcoin and that the Fed may actually use bitcoin as a way of managing its fiat debt. The second point here is merely conspiracy at the moment but it is very interest and possibly very lucrative
