How about a simple bet; 'Investors who purchased PETA at IPO will be able to realise a positive ROI in 6 months time'
Too vague. You might be able to get a positive ROI at some point during those 6 months if you actually sell at the right time and some bigger fools is willing to overpay. After all people made profit trading Pirate bonds too. Heck you could might even be able to spend 10 BTC to make it look like that happened.
Also, if cryptx gets delisted and goes private GigaVPS style, it will be impossible to objectively state if it will still be "possible" to ROI since you wouldnt be able to sell and thus have no market price. Unless you accept that under those circumstances, the value of the bond itself is considered zero and only dividend payments up to that date are considered.
Not really sure if it's too vague if you think this offerings a losing proposition, you seem to believe the operation will decline/and or be completely delisted meaning dividends and or share price will collapse.
If that's the case, then you would imagine in 6 months (or less) I wouldn't be able to realise a positive ROI anymore right?
we are not talking about 'sometime in' 6 months but 6 months exactly. If we were talking about 6 months or LESS, I'd just take the 10btc off your hands right now.
Obviously, if PETA were to disappear overnight you would automatically win, whereas if shares were to spike tomorrow then collapse in 6 months I'd not win, so it negates somewhat the greater fool theory you talk about. this is a bet to talk only about the long term potential of the mine which you think there is none
to be clear, we are talking strictly about BTC denominated profits- eur/usd/ yen blabla is not counted. Also any privatisation and subsequent otc sales of shares
would be open for independent adjudication, the bets not automatically nullified due to lack of 'market price' since there is always a market price as long as there's a market.