Post
Topic
Board Speculation
Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
by
Peter R
on 06/06/2014, 18:34:27 UTC
Whatever the direction this takes, it's going to be brutal

I personally don't think is will take a direction for a few days. Can easily see this consolidating until next week. Although we have been getting weekend pumps recently.
One funny dynamic that i noticed is that frequently, when people begin to describe a pattern, then that pattern NO longer will take place.  It is like someone is relying on people expecting a pattern, and then manipulate to change the pattern...

Maybe that comment is too conspiratorial, but I have seen several proclamations of patterns... that do NOT always play out too well.
Very likely. Bots and the methods they use have just about the biggest R and D budgets in software development and daytraders will be a prime target for them. Put a nice, clear pattern on the charts until a sizeable amount of money is following it and then turn it the wrong way, the daytraders have to get it right nearly every time but the whale only has to get it right once.

If a pattern exists, then it will be exploited in order to earn positive alpha (i.e., earn a profit in excess of what would be commensurate with the risk taken).  As it is natural to seek alpha, more and more money begins to exploit the pattern until it no longer exists!

In a perfectly-efficient market, alpha = 0 no matter how you allocate your capital.  Bots that exploit patterns make the market more efficient.