Again, we can't predict exactly where the difficulty ends up right? It could be more or less when it settles. You assume the exact same miners from prior to the NFactor change. I say more, new miners will jump on board--optimism.
I think you're overly optimistic - with the way the hashrate fell for all cards that aren't 4GB cards, I would make you a gentlemans wager that we're going to see it below 50% what it was a week ago (1.08k per the mining software, 0.0164 difficulty). If we settle above 500/0.0763 I would be shocked. My best cards dropped 60%, my worst 70% and I'm going to hypothesize that all CPU's dropped by 50%. So, unless, as you say, there is an influx of new miners, a 60%+ drop in difficulty should not be a surprise.If your assumptions pan out, the price will have to drop significantly from where it is now or the profitably per R7 240 4GB (and lots of CPUs btw) will be pretty significant. All likely scenarios seem pretty good for me, so I'll bet you 1000 YAC that now until Sunday (midnight EDT) difficulty never drops below 500...
So, what's the difficulty at?
