This is why personally (unless someone convinces me otherwise) I think the best route is a one time fixed increase to the cap (say 5 to 10 MB block size), combined with a plan to have in place a deterministic algorithm before rising volume necessitates the need for another manual increase.
I completely agree here. Increase the cap once to 5 - 10 MB, and then later implement floating caps using a deterministic algorithm.
Orphan costs can be reduced ~90% by changing the new block message format to include tx hashes instead of full transactions.
I've read a bit about this idea. A 90% reduction in block propagation time would be very helpful for reducing orphans. In your opinion, is there much risk in making this change?
Also, I understand that someone derived an equation that describes the impact of block propagation times on expected mining revenue. I've done a couple of searches, but I've never found the original thread. You wouldn't happen to know where this is, would you?