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Re: 1GH/s, 20w, $700 (was $500) — Butterflylabs, is it for real? (Part 2)
by
DeathAndTaxes
on 29/01/2012, 17:38:43 UTC
So how would that help their credibility with us? It wouldn't. It would still be a 'magic unicorn' to the same group of people here, only a different colored one. The only thing that would dispell the FUD for this sometimes-vocal group of forum members would be product shipments and subsequent test results.

It would for me.  Nobody buys FPGA retail.  Nobody except someone who needs a SINGLE chip for a prototype.  Wholesale FPGA go for 30% to 50% off at that is normal business.  Deeper pricecuts are certainly possible when the company is looking to dump them.  

Look the Statix III is a 65nm chip.  Alterra isn't even making it anymore.  They want to sell Stratix IV and soon they will need to sell Stratix V.  They want that inventory gone.  Gone from their website, gone from wholesalers, gone from retail outlets.  when Stratix V is in full production it becomes the high end part and the Statix IV becomes the value segment.  The Stratix III is just a third wheel.

Using a product anyone can relate to a top of the line Pentium 4 was $400 chip at launch.  If today someone found a tray of 1000 of them would it be impossible to believe they would unload them for say $20,000 ($20 ea).  95% off.  Holy shit.  Unbelievable.   No just business as usual.

While getting a last gen chip cheap is no guarantee they will deliver on their promises, it at least makes their claims plausible.

Marketing nonsense like "hybrid blend of FPGA and ASIC technology" just fueled speculation on sASIC but the performance, voltage, timeline, and issues all pointed to it not being an sASIC.  On the other hand their claim of 1GH @ 20W is not possible on a 65nm FPGA at any price.  I don't care if you want to pay $1000 per MH you aren't getting 50MH/W on a 65nm FPGA.

So you take everything the company did say (in double speak and half truths) and it becomes impossible and fraud/scam starts looking more probable.