which would give me about a 1 in 20 chance of winning a block when I start and maybe a 1 in 40 chance by the end of the month
I like your idea and I admire your appetite for risk (gambling) but I do not think you understand the math at all. Earlier you were talking about "throwing" 32 GH/s at this to see if you could solo mine a block. Your odds are nowhere near 1/40 to hit a block in the next 20 days (end of month).
For simplicity, you will have 32 GH/s / 84,000,000,000 GH/s (network) X (144 (blocks per day) x 30 (days in June) ) chance of hitting a block (if it was june 1).
That is not 1/40..... It is closer to 1 in a million
It is a lottery ticket.
That's why I called it a Lottery.
I spend approximately converted from UK Sterling $22 per week on the UK lottery with odds of winning at 14 million to 1. Whats wrong with shifting that to a lottery pool with odds of 1 million to 1 for slightly less in electric costs. I have been playing the UK lottery understanding the risks due to the odds and have spent over the last 8 years $9152 in UK equivalent without even winning once. 1 million to one is cracking odds for the money. Call it a lottery pool and accept the odds and it is good in my eyes.