which would give me about a 1 in 20 chance of winning a block when I start and maybe a 1 in 40 chance by the end of the month
I like your idea and I admire your appetite for risk (gambling) but I do not think you understand the math at all. Earlier you were talking about "throwing" 32 GH/s at this to see if you could solo mine a block. Your odds are nowhere near 1/40 to hit a block in the next 20 days (end of month).
For simplicity, you will have 32 GH/s / 84,000,000,000 GH/s (network) X (144 (blocks per day) x 30 (days in June) ) chance of hitting a block (if it was june 1).
That is not 1/40..... It is closer to 1 in a million
It is a lottery ticket.
i did not say that. if you look above your post i told doc h that if he did this I would use my 1th unit for one month. at the beginning of one month your chances start out at 1/20 at the end of the month your chances will have dropped to 1/40
calculations for this are based on bit coin wisdom. one month right now at 1th earns 1.28 btc x 20 = 25 btc thats a block so right now if diff freezes running 1th gives you a 1/20 chance in catching a block.
by the end of the month the odds drop to 1/40
the math for catching a block with 32gh right now is .04107 earned in a month so .04107 x 610 = 25.0527 so right now if diff froze 1 month at 32gh has a one in 610 chance of winning a block since diff maybe double the chance of winning a block by the end of the block is 1220
discouragement of this is okay by me . but I have around 2th of paid for hash bouncing around between different pools.
I am not good at coding but I am really good at game theory .
If you have hash power and don't use 5 to 10 % of it solo mining you are not giving yourself the best chance to profit.
If you have efficient hash power using under 1 watt a hash and don't toss some of it at solo mining you are actually risking more loss then if you toss some at solo mining.
As long as your hash power is earning more then the power it cost when it runs on a standard pool the math is in your favor to solo mine it. this is a fact
so for me a 2 watt device per hash works until diff is 20 or 24. my power cost is 14 cents a k watt
I did a lot of calculations on this. the math is good.
Lets say a three digit number bet pays 500 or 600 to 1 should pay 1000 to 1 the odds are against you.
Lets set it pays 1200 to 1 the odds are not against you.
if you play 1 dollar a day mining in a solo pool is the second choice getting 1200 to one on a 1000 to one shot