It's all variables and it's all risk. Whether or not you choose to accept it is the question. You can't just make a blanket statement of "if it's not under $2 per GH, it'll never ROI." If the price of BTC shoots up to $1000 tomorrow, that $2 per GH will ROI just fine.
If you need BTC to skyrocket to ROI, then you're far better off just buying the BTC.