Hi all,
I posted this in the Wall Observer Thread, but thought I would just put it in its own individual thread for posterity's sake.
I whipped up the following chart when we were stagnant in the 400's (the blue line) and was waiting to see if the channel I arbitrarily assigned would hold, and it was a pleasant surprise to see the price hit the lower boundary and begin rising (the red line).
I also found that the bubbles (or peaks, if you would prefer to call them that) seem to occur approximately every 234 days (an observation already mentioned on this forum) - with the minimum time between peaks being 213 days and the maximum time being 235 days. Considering there have been six peaks, that is a very small degree of variability for such a notoriously volatile phenomenon as Bitcoin.
I then isolated these peaks and noticed that (bar the June 2011 peak), the others very closely follow their own exponential trend which puts the next peak at approximately $4,900 (again, aligning with other predictions being tossed around the forum).
If you extrapolate this trend further, it puts the March 2015 peak at a whopping $26,300!
One last interesting point of note... the run-up to the bubbles, whilst varying in duration, does appear to assume the same velocity. Assuming we hit the top of the channel in the next run-up, this price velocity has us commencing the notorious bull-run within the next 10-20 days. Is it just a coincidence that the 1w MACD crossover looks likely to occur in a similar time-frame?.....
Final disclaimer (before someone else invariably says it): Past behaviour is no indication of the future.
TL;DR - If this expected bull-run does proceed as anticipated, will it be because we expect it to occur? And when the bubble pops, will this again be because we expect the bubble to pop? I would imagine any self-fulfilling prophecy effects such as this will become dampened as the number of users (and thus, sample size) increases?
I posted this in the Wall Observer Thread, but thought I would just put it in its own individual thread for posterity's sake.
I whipped up the following chart when we were stagnant in the 400's (the blue line) and was waiting to see if the channel I arbitrarily assigned would hold, and it was a pleasant surprise to see the price hit the lower boundary and begin rising (the red line).
I also found that the bubbles (or peaks, if you would prefer to call them that) seem to occur approximately every 234 days (an observation already mentioned on this forum) - with the minimum time between peaks being 213 days and the maximum time being 235 days. Considering there have been six peaks, that is a very small degree of variability for such a notoriously volatile phenomenon as Bitcoin.
I then isolated these peaks and noticed that (bar the June 2011 peak), the others very closely follow their own exponential trend which puts the next peak at approximately $4,900 (again, aligning with other predictions being tossed around the forum).
If you extrapolate this trend further, it puts the March 2015 peak at a whopping $26,300!
One last interesting point of note... the run-up to the bubbles, whilst varying in duration, does appear to assume the same velocity. Assuming we hit the top of the channel in the next run-up, this price velocity has us commencing the notorious bull-run within the next 10-20 days. Is it just a coincidence that the 1w MACD crossover looks likely to occur in a similar time-frame?.....
Final disclaimer (before someone else invariably says it): Past behaviour is no indication of the future.
... but it sure is interesting...
TL;DR - If this expected bull-run does proceed as anticipated, will it be because we expect it to occur? And when the bubble pops, will this again be because we expect the bubble to pop? I would imagine any self-fulfilling prophecy effects such as this will become dampened as the number of users (and thus, sample size) increases?
In general this is what I also predict. But we can't hold this straight line, as the price can't go up forever. So we have a bending and a upper bound.
We have to bend, but I don't think it'll happen that soon.
As that one oter graph that's going around says, we're still only in the (very) early adopters phase.
in fact we are bending already. look at the peak at about 350 days... the gradient before was higher, than it is now.