Post
Topic
Board Service Announcements (Altcoins)
Re: Just-Dice.com : Invest in 1% House Edge Dice Game
by
dooglus
on 18/06/2014, 18:59:34 UTC
When you use the word "Kelly" here, is that just meaning 1%, or is there some other meaning for the word?

He's referring to the Kelly criterion which tells you the optimal amount to risk when you have a positive expectation.

It turns out that Kelly recommends you risk the same amount of your bankroll as the house edge percentage.  Since JD has a 1% house edge, "full Kelly" means 1%.

There's a tradeoff to be made between volatility and expected profit.  We're conservative in only risking 0.5%.

This article is a good introduction to the concept, and includes this image which shows how volatility and profit trade off against each other:



See this, too:

http://compoundingmyinterests.com/compounding-the-blog/2012/10/12/how-did-ed-thorp-win-in-blackjack-and-the-stock-market.html