Post
Topic
Board Pools
Re: ==== Eligius, please pay my 200+ BTC ====
by
jtoomim
on 19/06/2014, 03:06:02 UTC
The mathematical probability of you not finding a block with the amount of work required to find 24 blocks is:

One in 81,000,000

ie. pretty fucking unlikely.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bonferroni_correction

Eligius has several thousand active users. Let's say 1k users of medium to large size. The probability of one of those users having such extremely bad luck would then be 1000 times higher than 1/81,000,000, or 1/81,000. Still unlikely.

Excuse me if I'm being pedantic, I don't like seeing statistics misapplied in important situations. Yes, I'm often an unhappy person.