f = (bp - q) / b
where f is the fraction to risk,
b is the payout multiplier minus 1
p is the probability of the house winning
q is the probability of the house losing
Yes. You need to consider how much the house should risk, considering the odds the house is getting.
That is different than considering how much the player should risk, considering their odds.
It's not symmetrical, which is somewhat counter-intuitive.
So we have to make the transformation
p(house)=q(player)
q(house)=p(player)
b(house)=1/b(player)
which implies
f(house)==house edge
But for a player it is more optimal to wager at 3X payout instead of 2X payout.
---------------------
So if average play in bitcoin was 5X higher for your first 90 days vs your last 120 days, do you consider them about equal since bitcoin is now worth 5X more in dollars?
So daily play is just over a million dollars, which is what it was when you started.
| Profit | Days | Average US$millions per day |
| 1.00% | 90 | $1.11 |
| 1.00% | 8 | $14.75 |
| 0.25% | 3 | $3.23 |
| 0.50% | 14 | $15.87 |
| 0.50% | 128 | $3.95 |
| 0.50% | 120 | $1.27 |
| MaxProf | Days | Average | Minimum | Maximum | Sum |
| 1.00% | 90 | 11,722 | 644 | 124,771 | 1,055,016 |
| 1.00% | 8 | 119,543 | 4,755 | 384,966 | 956,346 |
| 0.25% | 3 | 25,741 | 15,904 | 33,064 | 77,223 |
| 0.50% | 14 | 125,812 | 7,485 | 1,553,358 | 2,061,576 |
| 0.50% | 128 | 6,782 | 1,448 | 70,669 | 868,111 |
| 0.50% | 120 | 2,386 | 691 | 5,756 | 286,325 |
11% a year is a good return, but the risks involved in investing in a site like JD are absolutely huge.
Being realistic the stock market should return 7%, maybe more on average,
(like I said, personally I trust him, but after what has happened at other Dice sites people should be wary)
I guess I don't really see that. It's been 8 months since the last really high variation, and there has been a steady amount of return, on bitcoins which have increased in value against USD by 500%.
For a few weeks there, wagering was more than twice the value of the bank in a day. But don't forget that if someone tries it again, they could lose next time creating a bonanza for the investors.
Biggest Wagering Days since October 12, 2013Fri, Nov 15, 13 70,669 BTC
Tue, Jan 7, 14 29,185
Fri, Feb 14, 14 25,835
Sun, Jan 26, 14 25,306
Sat, Dec 14, 13 24,720
Tue, Jan 21, 14 24,156
Sat, Jan 25, 14 15,531