Post
Topic
Board Beginners & Help
Re: Martingale System
by
300
on 22/06/2014, 04:06:04 UTC
What would happen then if I waited till there had been already a run of 10 or 15  non winning streaks and then started betting.

The bets are independent, so the chance of future bets will stay the same.

Yup:

Quote from: Wikipedia
The gambler's fallacy, also known as the Monte Carlo fallacy or the fallacy of the maturity of chances, is the mistaken belief that if something happens more frequently than normal during some period, then it will happen less frequently in the future, or that if something happens less frequently than normal during some period, then it will happen more frequently in the future (presumably as a means of balancing nature). In situations where what is being observed is truly random (i.e. independent trials of a random process), this belief, though appealing to the human mind, is false...

...There is another way to emphasize the fallacy. As already mentioned, the fallacy is built on the notion that previous failures indicate an increased probability of success on subsequent attempts.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler's_fallacy