Because that is what we have seen so far, no hashrate spikes at all, this is a unique occurrence.
ROFL. You do realize in the past year difficulty went up by nearly a factor 1000x right? 100000% Nothing unique at 25% jumps. What would be unique is sustained <7% week growth wihch is what my simulation is based on, we havent seen sustained growth that low ever since the asic era.
Anyway, tell me, what do you think difficulty will be like by the end of this year?
Except for that one time we got 3 times what we were promised after 1st havelock IPO
And who gave you that? A good part of it is a loan you will be paying off for an eternity, and the rest from second and third round IPO investors who already saw 35% of their investment go up in smoke after just a few weeks (more like 50-80% if they own more than a handful of shares).
Good luck finding new suckers for a fresh round of IPO's at even higher prices to bail you out yet again. Not gonna happen, even the stupidity of bitcoin investors has its limits.