THIS is where you lose me. In short, I don't believe this and would like to hear the case for it.
If a reinvestment strat was expected to ~0% ROI why would any rational actor ever do it?
Are all miners irrational or are your numbers off?
What do you do with ASIC and the historic cases which refute this claim?
ITs real simple. If you have an investment that yields less than 100%, even 99%, and you reinvest your earnings over and over in the same vehicle, your ROI will eventually approach zero. The math isnt that hard really
There is no historic data to refute this claim, its pure and simple logic. And it does generally apply to all of bitcoin asic history. The one thing that prevents some people from seening that is the fact bitcoin appreciated >1000x in a few years. So even someone who preordered a BFL miner for 100BTC and ended up mining 20 BTC will often think he won, because he made a dollar denominated profit. And many have reinvested those 20 BTC in Monarchs and will end up mining 5 or less BTC. Reinvestment for the win.
You know that just about anyone who started mining before march has reached a positive ROI in both btc and usd right?