I need some maths whiz help. I'm trying to work out the time required to wait for 99% surety of no double spend, based on the current block time and an estimate of mining pool hashrate %.


eg, if DingBatPool has X% of the network hashrate and the block time is Y minutes, you should wait Z minutes to be 99% certain there is no double spend.

[for now, let's ignore that Pool1, Pool2, etc could be colluding]

Data from:
https://blockchain.info/q/interval [Block time]
https://blockchain.info/pools?timespan=4hrs [inaccurate, but sufficient pool hashrate %]


What would be the formula to get Z = the time required to wait?