I was excited when I saw you had come to post, yet you only leave an ad hominem attack without contributing to the topic, which is disappointing. Tell me, had it been the opposite ie BTC shorts piling on for months to alltime highs and me pointing it out, would you have said the same? I'm not intimately familiar with Bitfinex, so it's possible that some nuances are eluding me.
Yeah. It would nice to have some stat (which we could believe in) which stated unequivocally how much of those swaps are currently employed in leveraged long positions. If it is anything near to ALL OF THEM then that would indeed be a ticking timebomb, so much so that I don't believe that this can be the case. One simply doesn't sit in a leveraged long position, paying those sort of interest rates whilst the market retraces and/or consolidates, which is what it has been doing for around a month now.
If it is indeed the case that we have a whole lot of leveraged longs sitting around waiting on their break-even point to come back and perhaps a little bit of profit, then that is a shit ton of selling pressure just waiting to be released.
If it is the case that none of the information coming out of Bitfinex can be fully trusted and behind those swap rate stats, lie layer upon layer of Bitfinex duplicitiy, then that wouldn't surprise me at all and would perhaps paint less of a foreboding picture for the Bitcoin market......unless of course one trades or has money on Bitfinex.