In Adam's thread, I posted this, but I'm looking for actual rational intelligent feedback on updated BTC risk factors, so I repost here:
On a scale of 0 to 100, my risk factors are something like this:
Satoshi coins - .001% probability or less, impact 10, duration 3 = .0003
ECDSA vulnerability - .01% or less, impact 10, duration 2 = .002
Implementation vulnerability - 1% or less, impact 8, duration 1 = .008
Bitstamp defection - .1% or less, impact 8, duration 2 = .016
Social apocalypse - 1% or less, impact 6, duration 10 = .6
Mining centralization - 5% or less, impact 5, duration 5 = 1.25
Nuclear war - 2% or less, impact 8, duration 10 = 1.6
US AML Fungibility crisis - 20% or less, impact 9, duration 10 = 18
unknown unknown - NaN
Being rational, a hodler should try to plan for the risks, starting with the largest. How do we deal with the US fungibility issue?
Do you see this as forcing ID to address mapping? White- and black-listing addresses?
Is it time to anonymize our coins? Would anonymizing the coins be likely to put us on the blacklist?
Personally, I like privacy. Right now, there are too many people who can map me to my addresses. I ought to fix that.