Someone actually lost a 98% bet? And 7k BTC on a 96% bet? That's crazy. Seems so unlikely that it would fail.
You lose a 98% bet 2% of the time.
That is, 1 every 50.
If there were just 50 bets per day on the site, on average 1 would still lose, every day.
Do your math.
"Someone lost 7k on a 96% bet? Wow!"
It seems amazing until you realise that he made 27 such bets in a row, and won the first 26 of them...
1 2013-10-02 07:34:43 #148575723: 1767.51587669 @ 92% hi: lucky:19.0776 profit: 134.48490980 bal:1902.00078649 n: 58 134.48478460
2 2013-10-02 07:34:53 #148575921: 1767.51587669 @ 92% hi: lucky:12.2165 profit: 134.48490980 bal:2036.48569629 n: 59 268.96969440
3 2013-10-02 07:35:39 #148576957: 1767.51587669 @ 92% hi: lucky:73.9495 profit: 134.48490980 bal:2170.97060609 n: 60 403.45460420
4 2013-10-02 07:42:12 #148584193: 2170.97057849 @ 92% hi: lucky:60.4122 profit: 165.18255156 bal:2336.15313005 n:114 568.63712816
5 2013-10-02 07:43:30 #148585325: 2336.15313005 @ 92% hi: lucky:79.5807 profit: 177.75078975 bal:2513.90391980 n:115 746.38791791
6 2013-10-02 07:48:30 #148590355: 2513.90372740 @ 92% hi: lucky:52.1169 profit: 191.27529235 bal:2705.17901975 n:119 937.66301786
7 2013-10-02 07:49:13 #148590882: 2513.90372740 @ 92% hi: lucky:93.7250 profit: 191.27529235 bal:2896.45431210 n:120 1128.93831021
8 2013-10-02 07:51:02 #148591949: 2896.45431590 @ 92% hi: lucky:57.2928 profit: 220.38240367 bal:3116.83671957 n:126 1349.32071768
9 2013-10-02 08:01:57 #148601047: 3116.83674877 @ 93% hi: lucky:92.4414 profit: 201.08624487 bal:3317.92299364 n:145 1550.40699175
10 2013-10-02 08:12:54 #148612542: 3317.92314519 @ 93% hi: lucky:82.9679 profit: 214.05956096 bal:3531.98270615 n:186 1764.46670426
11 2013-10-02 08:19:29 #148618898: 3533.97982021 @ 95% hi: lucky:45.0747 profit: 148.79913916 bal:3682.77895937 n:236 1915.26295748
12 2013-10-02 08:21:04 #148620446: 3682.77897204 @ 95% hi: lucky:56.5205 profit: 155.06436614 bal:3837.84333818 n:241 2070.32733629
13 2013-10-03 22:16:36 #151396071: 3846.94273818 @ 93.01% hi: lucky:41.2406 profit: 247.74957520 bal:4094.69231338 n:308 2318.07691149
14 2013-10-03 22:16:56 #151396629: 3846.94273818 @ 93.03% hi: lucky:90.6891 profit: 246.86927929 bal:4341.56159267 n:309 2564.94619078
15 2013-10-03 22:17:12 #151397027: 3846.94273818 @ 93.09% hi: lucky:78.7297 profit: 244.23066127 bal:4585.79225394 n:310 2809.17685205
16 2013-10-03 22:17:36 #151397665: 3846.94273818 @ 93.2% hi: lucky:33.1190 profit: 239.40201721 bal:4825.19427115 n:311 3048.57886926
17 2013-10-03 22:21:15 #151403104: 4825.19427115 @ 94.3% hi: lucky:40.0573 profit: 240.49216990 bal:5065.68644105 n:314 3289.07103916
18 2013-10-03 22:24:13 #151406494: 5065.68648587 @ 94.55% hi: lucky:17.7951 profit: 238.41673708 bal:5304.10322295 n:327 3527.48782106
19 2013-10-03 22:27:04 #151408897: 5304.10330755 @ 95.09% hi: lucky:05.4491 profit: 218.09910565 bal:5522.20241320 n:346 3745.58701131
20 2013-10-04 05:01:01 #151911402: 5519.94840009 @ 95.21% hi: lucky:97.9878 profit: 219.73115077 bal:5739.67955086 n:530 3965.31812092
21 2013-10-04 05:01:05 #151911481: 5519.94840009 @ 95.21% hi: lucky:59.0951 profit: 219.73115077 bal:5959.41070163 n:531 4185.04927169
22 2013-10-04 05:02:56 #151914007: 5959.41068558 @ 95.51% hi: lucky:26.6702 profit: 217.76091885 bal:6177.17160443 n:556 4402.81017449
23 2013-10-04 05:04:58 #151915792: 6177.17161758 @ 95.71% hi: lucky:47.1520 profit: 212.33823588 bal:6389.50985346 n:589 4615.14842352
24 2013-10-04 05:08:04 #151919268: 6389.50987008 @ 95.81% hi: lucky:98.4443 profit: 212.73911449 bal:6602.24898457 n:625 4827.88755463
25 2013-10-04 05:11:39 #151923159: 6602.24886053 @ 95.95% hi: lucky:34.1439 profit: 209.86825940 bal:6812.11711993 n:682 5037.75568999
26 2013-10-04 05:14:24 #151926184: 6812.11702310 @ 96.04% hi: lucky:09.6031 profit: 209.95278458 bal:7022.06980768 n:685 5247.70837774
27 2013-10-04 07:22:09 #152097271: 7016.28891331 @ 96.2% hi: lucky:03.5475 profit:-7016.28891331 bal: 0.00000000 n:748 -1768.58056457