The heading on the pool graph doesn't make sense. (The second graph on the page.)

Not sure I am following your graph for pools. They seem to suggest there is a big difference over an extended period of time. For the most part luck is luck. It averages out over time like flipping a coin. When pool mining, a larger pool has more consistent luck over a short period of time, but your reward is smaller for each piece of luck. In a smaller pool your luck is more eratic unless you look at it over a longer period of time. But your reward is larger for each piece of luck. It averages out to be similar when you look at it over a long period of time. (That is, unless you are in a pool that has extended periods of bad luck.) Many people are impatient. They want the coin NOW. That is the draw of larger pools. But large pools can have bad luck too.

The larger factor is the difficulty, which is largely in direct relationship to the total hash rate. If you have more luck before the hash rate goes up you will earn a higher reward. If your lucky streak is after the hash rate increases you will earn a lower reward. What is the probability of each event over 15 difficulty increases? Wouldn't it average out for the average miner? Individual results may vary.

Maybe I just don't get what you are trying to do. Perhaps if you graphed actual pool results for a number of pools of various sizes over 6 months you would be able to see a correlation to your predictions, or not. I could be wrong, but it doesn't seem like 10% of the miners mining in pools would be making twice the average coin. If its true... which pool is that?

The only magic elixir is to be very very lucky. In which case you should solo mine. Are you a lucky guy? Gonna bet your whole investment on it?