I guess that depends on your definition of "subtle", but one thing is for certain: there's some new piece of malware posted on the forums every couple of weeks, and it's been getting a bit more clever each time. This is a trend that I'd guess is very likely to continue.

Take this one for example. The website it points to looked surprising professional even though it had some broken links (it's currently down, so you'll just have to take my word for it). It wasn't posted by a newbie which gave it a little credibility (I'm pretty sure the forum account it was posted under was hacked). The malware itself wasn't all that clever given that it tripped a bunch of antivirus (probably some existing RATware if I had to guess), but overall it wasn't immediately obvious.

Here's another one that's a little more clever. Not the nicest looking website, and it is posted by a newbie, but it claims to be open source and even has a link the the supposed source on GitHub. There's also someone who's not a newbie who is somewhat defending it. The malware itself isn't an off-the-shelf package-- it appears to have been custom written and doesn't trip antivirus unlike the first example.

I'd have to guess that these kinds of examples are already fooling at least some people, otherwise why would their respective authors keep bothering (both of those examples were not the first of their kind...)?