Ninjastic
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Board Speculation
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Previous crashes and recoveries
by
Joe200
on 03/07/2014, 16:09:11 UTC
(This is the latest, posted 2014-11-20. Original here.)

The list. Here is a list of all the price drops of 15% or more.

Code:
    pk.date pk.dow pk.moon pk.price    tr.date tr.moon tr.price drop    ft.date ft.moon ft.price n.dest n.be n.tr.pk n.ft.pk
1 2010-07-19    Mon       8     0.09 2010-07-24      13     0.05 44.4 2010-07-27      13     0.06     NA   83       5       8
2 2010-11-07    Sun       1     0.36 2010-12-10       5     0.19 47.2 2010-12-11       6     0.22     11   68      33      34
3 2011-01-16    Sun      12     0.39 2011-01-19      14     0.31 20.5 2011-01-20      13     0.35     10    5       3       4
4 2011-02-14    Mon      12     1.06 2011-04-05       3     0.67 36.8 2011-04-07       5     0.75     14   62      50      52
5 2011-05-14    Sat      12     7.86 2011-05-21      10     5.97   24 2011-05-23       8      7.1      2   11       7       9
6 2011-06-09    Thu       9     29.6 2011-11-18       7     2.14 92.8 2011-11-24       1     2.42     42  617     156     162
A 2012-01-08    Sun      15     7.05 2012-02-16       5     4.19 40.6 2012-03-26       4     4.65     11  184      39      78
B 2012-08-17    Fri       1     13.3 2012-08-19       3     9.09 31.4 2012-08-23       7       10     18  110       2       6
7 2013-04-09    Tue       1      215 2013-04-16       6     65.3 69.6 2013-07-08       1       77     17  209       7      90
C 2013-09-03    Tue       1      145 2013-10-03       1      111 23.7 2013-10-06       2      122     18   45      30      33
8 2013-11-30    Sat       2    1,130 2014-11-02      10      324 71.2 2014-11-09      12      361     20   NA     337     343

* Number = peak was higher than all previous peaks. Letter = peak was lower than a previous peak.
* 8 drops from a peak that was higher than all previous peaks. 3 drops from lower peaks.
* pk = peak. tr = trough. ft = "foot" -- according to my simplistic algorithm, this is when the next move up begins. (For the latest crash, these are provisional.)
* xx.moon = the distance, in days, from the new moon. Either the previous new moon or the next new moon, whichever is closest.
* drop = percent drop from peak to trough.
* n.dest = number of days of gains (prior to the peak) that were destroyed in the crash.
* n.be = number of days to break even if you bought at the peak.
* n.tr.pk = number of days from the current trough to the peak which preceded it.
* n.ft.pk = number of days from the current foot to the peak which preceded it.

A drop of 15% is not really a crash. Here are all drops of 45% or more, which is what I would consider to be a crash.

Code:
    pk.date pk.dow pk.moon pk.price    tr.date tr.moon tr.price drop    ft.date ft.moon ft.price n.dest n.be n.tr.pk n.ft.pk
1 2010-11-07    Sun       1     0.36 2010-12-10       5     0.19 47.2 2010-12-11       6     0.22     11   68      33      34
2 2011-06-09    Thu       9     29.6 2011-11-18       7     2.14 92.8 2011-11-24       1     2.42     42  617     156     162
3 2013-04-09    Tue       1      215 2013-04-16       6     65.3 69.6 2013-07-08       1       77     17  209       7      90
4 2013-11-30    Sat       2    1,130 2014-11-02      10      324 71.2 2014-11-09      12      361     20   NA     337     343

* Only 4 crashes so far.

Crash duration.
* In the current crash, it has been 355 days since the peak. So far, this is the second longest crash to break even. The only longer crash was off of 2011-06-09, which took 617 days to break even. If it takes as long to break even in the current crash, then it will take until 2015-08-09 to get back to 1,130.

* In the current crash, the trough so far is 2014-11-02 / 324. There've been 337 days from peak to this trough. This is by far the longest ever.

* Similarly with the foot -- 343 days from the peak, longest ever.

What does this all mean?

History.
* 2014-05-15
* 2014-07-03

Peaks and troughs are not equivalent. I detect peaks as the highest price before a drop of X%. The troughs are the lowest price before the next peak.

The above shows peaks and troughs in the price of BTC/USD. For another perspective, let's look at the price of USD/BTC. For convenience, I convert it back to the BTC/USD scale.

All drops in the price of USD in terms of BTC of 15% or more.

Code:
      pk.date pk.dow pk.price    tr.date tr.price drop    ft.date ft.price n.dest n.be n.tr.pk n.ft.pk
1  2010-07-17    Sat     0.05 2010-07-19     0.09 44.4 2010-07-20     0.08     NA   NA       2       3
2  2010-07-26    Mon     0.05 2011-06-09     29.6 99.8 2011-06-10     24.7     NA   NA     318     319
3  2011-09-10    Sat     5.03 2011-09-11     6.07 17.1 2011-09-15     4.98      2    5       1       5
4  2011-09-17    Sat     4.81 2011-09-20     6.11 21.3 2011-09-24     5.45      9   11       3       7
5  2011-10-19    Wed     2.28 2011-10-29     3.54 35.6 2011-11-03     3.21      3   29      10      15
6  2011-11-18    Fri     2.14 2013-11-30    1,130 99.8 2013-12-06      918     NA   NA     741     747
7  2014-02-25    Tue      535 2014-03-04      675 20.7 2014-03-19      613     14   30       7      22
8  2014-04-11    Fri      393 2014-06-03      666   41 2014-07-25      603     36  170      53     105
9  2014-10-05    Sun      325 2014-10-15      398 18.4 2014-10-24      358      8   28      10      19
10 2014-11-02    Sun      324 2014-11-13      418 22.4              NA     39   NA       8      21

* Peak is the peak USD price, which is a BTC low.
* 10 USD price drops in all (BTC price rises).
* 3-6: 4 lower peaks, followed by a huge USD drop. Peaks 7-10: we've just had another 4 lower peaks.
* 2, 6: Trough higher than previous trough. The following peak is higher than previous peak. 10: trough is again higher than the previous trough. Will the next peak (BTC low) be higher than 324?
* Two big bull markets (in BTC): 0.05 to 29.6: 318 days. 2.14 to 1,130: 741 days.

Does anything look interesting to you?