Post
Topic
Board Economics
Re: Global Financial Crisis scenarios
by
boumalo
on 06/07/2014, 20:58:58 UTC
In order to see the price of bitcoin, gold and all commodities goes up, we need the dollar's price (or value) to go down. In other words : inflation. With QE infinity, the world is heading towards inflation !. So good news for US  Cheesy

There is certainly a correlation (and sometimes a strong one) between the strength of the dollar and the price of commodities and other currencies, but it's not a perfect correlation.  If the dollar weakens, that could help the price of bitcoin rise, but not necessarily.  Ultimately, the price of bitcoin in USD is simply determined by how much USD people are willing to pay for it.  The price of bitcoin in USD will only rise as a result of USD weakness if people believe that bitcoin will hold its value better than USD.

And btw, the US is still on course to continue tapering its bond purchases, so QE infinity is (theoretically) coming to an end.  The Fed is also expected to start raising interest rates within another year or so (of course that prediction keeps getting moved back), which will remove the last of the stimulus.
This is true regarding the value of the dollar. However in times of economic (and geopolitical) crisis the dollar tends to rise as it is considered the least risky asset class.

Dollar has value because you can still buy oil with it.

In time of crisis, people and central banks usually flock to gold.
The dollar has value because it is the most widely accepted form of payment accepted throughout the world.

It doesn't mean they can create USD in any amount and it won't lose its value

Countries and companies can stop using USD

tee-rex : savings are good, consuming on credit is bad

What about savings versus direct consumption? Which one is better? You won't get away with this question so easily. Smiley

Correct but you cannot have a healthy economy with increasing salaries (in real terms!) and increasing standard of living if you consume on credit but your industry is stable or decreasing, your taxes are going up, your trade&public deficit are going up, your unfunded liabilities is going up, the number of employed people compared to the total of the population is going down and the quality of the jobs is going way down (look at the last jobs reports : mostly part time jobs and full time jobs are destroyed at an alarming rate!)

You didn't answer my question... Cool

In the states it would be healthier and better for the economy in a long term perspective if consumers were saving more and consuming less