Yes the derivative is more of a game/gambling but I encourage everyone with an accurate magic crystal ball to give it a shot.
I've never invested in anything other than AM as it's the only semi-legit offering IMO (could be better of course). I did throw away some change (~0.01btc) due to the neobee failure but I didn't really think/care about that.
So your success in the derivative area isn't because you picked a good company, it's more of a gambling. You only picked 1 successful venture until now by picking AM shares. So you only risked once for the long term. I'm on my third successful pick with the SP10.
For the record, I think he's talking about twentyseventy's BD derivative, which is a mining bond tied to a shorting instrument. Incidentally, it isn't
technically a zero-sum game through time, as new entrants (or existing players) purchasing B.EXCH, the price-regulating asset which is a bundled set of the mining bond (B.MINE) and the short (B.SELL), add to the net value of the asset set (paid out to B.SELL holders at each difficulty bump).
The rules are set by the underlying math, so its not really a company. Granted, you don't have to "gamble" to make money on it - you just have to be able to anticipate when new mining tech is going to hit the market, ship, and start hashing.