Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
Guys and girls - this situation is going to resolve itself just like the situation in the 400s. We bounced around high to low and mid to low 400s for many weeks. Finally, there just were no more sellers. None. And once that happened, the bulls ran wild.
Well, that is what we are seeing again. No buying, but less and less selling. So unless sellers start selling more soon, then the selling will eventually slow to a crawl again. At that time, our only way forward will be up.
Now this could take another week or so or more - who knows - its all just "speculation" that we love.
But, me, I'm watching the sellers, not the buyers, for clues on how low this goes and where the local bottom really is.
Well, that is what we are seeing again. No buying, but less and less selling. So unless sellers start selling more soon, then the selling will eventually slow to a crawl again. At that time, our only way forward will be up.
Now this could take another week or so or more - who knows - its all just "speculation" that we love.
But, me, I'm watching the sellers, not the buyers, for clues on how low this goes and where the local bottom really is.
Yeah I think there are just too many bulls expecting a bubble, can't go up when everyone is a bull unless there is a huge influx of new people getting into bitcoin. That's going to happen eventually but not as fast as people are thinking. Some impatient buyers have already sold and I see the number of bears increase again which is positive because we need them as fuel for the price to go up.
I don't expect a bubble any time soon but I do see 800-850 in the cards.Do you really think everyone is bullish? Still feels like bear central around here compared to in a real bull market, when every thread is rockets and trains and people tell you they've maxed out credit cards and re mortgaged their house then I'd agree everyone is bullish. Im still not super bullish (leveraged long) but I've been all in (non leveraged) since around $450 my finger is far away from the sell button and like windjc Im waiting for the sellers to dry up again and my finger will be firmly pressing that long button (absent bad "news").
We're clearly not at the top of a bubble, but that wasn't what I was claiming. Just too many people anticipating one while the market hasn't fully shrugged off the 6-month long bear market yet. The two subsequent bubbles in 2013 are unlikely to repeat again, the April 2013 bubble tested the limits of the MtGox monopoly era and the November 2013 bubble signaled the end of MtGox and the rise of several new exchanges. The end of a monopoly exchange for BTC was clearly a good step the market took, but the market still has to take the next step in order to really grow explosively again. It's coming, but we're not there yet and it could easily take another year or so. Until then I see us hovering somewhere between 400 and 1000.