That is an interesting point with respect to the dream of having 1 BTC = $100,000 (or pick your favorite high number).
Using my previously derived formula for the power consumption:
P = (6(50/2
e) + f)(x)(1 - g)/c [kW]
where:
x = exchange rate [USD/BTC]
e = era [0..32] (we are currently in era 1)
f = average fees per hour [BTC/hour]
c = cost of energy [USD/kWh]
g = average gross profit margin [unitless ratio]
we can look at the power consumption in each era assuming a price of $100,000 per BTC.
In order to make it simple I will make the following assumptions:
x = $100,000 per BTC
f = fees per hour will keep the coinbase above 6 BTC/hour (1 BTC/block) in all eras
c = $0.10 per kWh
g = 0.1 miner gross profit margin
Original target Subsidy Est Fees Power
Era starting year BTC/block BTC/hour GW
--- --------------- ----------- ---------- ------
0 2009 50.00000000 0.00000000 270.00
1 2013 25.00000000 0.00000000 135.00
2 2017 12.50000000 0.00000000 67.50
3 2021 6.25000000 0.00000000 33.75
4 2025 3.12500000 0.00000000 16.88
5 2029 1.56250000 0.00000000 8.44
6 2033 0.78125000 1.31250000 5.40
7 2037 0.39062500 3.65625000 5.40
8 2041 0.19531250 4.82812500 5.40
9 2045 0.09765625 5.41406250 5.40