I stated several times, and repeat again: I do not see how one could make any fundamented prediction about the price of bitcoin, even in the short term.  I would not hazard making any.  It may go to 6'000$ next week, or it may go down to 6$.

All one can say is that,  if this or that event were to happen, then the price could go signifcantly up or down.  But none of the events that we can think of is sufficiently certain to happen, and other events may happen that would have the opposite effect.

My bear-masked estimates are

LET'S GIVE PROBABILITIES TO THE FOLLOWING EVENTS
a) In 2014, price will visit below 100 = 40%
b) In 2014, price will visit below 200 = 60%
c) In 2014, price will visit below 300 = 70%
d) In 2014, price will visit below 400 = 80%
e) In 2014, price will visit above 500 = 30%
f) In 2014, price will visit above 750 = 5%
g) In 2014, price will visit above 1000 = 1%
h) In 2014, price will visit above 1250 = 0% (for practical purposes)
/LET'S GIVE PROBABILITIES TO THE FOLLOWING EVENTS