Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
When Risto asked us to make predictions for (the rest of) 2014, back in 2014-04-14, I provided two sets, the "bear-masked" one that was just re-posted, and the following "bull-masked" set:
Admittedly it makes no mathematical sense to have two sets of probabilities for the same events (that could be a good definition of schizophrenia). But, anyway:
On that day, Apr/14, the price at Bitstamp ranged from 408$ to 475$. After that day, the the price has ranged from 420$ (May/06) to 683$ (Jun/01).
So, one event for which my bullish half gave 40% probability of happening has happened ("price will go above 500$"). All the other events, for which I gave probability 40% or less, have still to happen.
So, can we wait until the end of the year before deciding who was too pessimist and who was too optimist?
Since it is free, why not:
LET'S GIVE PROBABILITIES TO THE FOLLOWING EVENTS
a) In 2014, price will visit below 100 = 10%
b) In 2014, price will visit below 200 = 20%
c) In 2014, price will visit below 300 = 30%
d) In 2014, price will visit below 400 = 40%
e) In 2014, price will visit above 500 = 40%
f) In 2014, price will visit above 750 = 10%
g) In 2014, price will visit above 1000 = 3%
h) In 2014, price will visit above 1250 = 1%
i) In 2014, price will visit above 2000 = 0.1%
j) In 2014, price will visit above 3000 = 0.01%
k) In 2014, price will visit above 4000 = 0.001%
l) In 2014, price will visit above 5000 = 0.0001%
m) In 2014, price will visit above 7000 = 0.00001%
n) In 2014, price will visit above 10000 = 0.000001%
/LET'S GIVE PROBABILITIES TO THE FOLLOWING EVENTS
These numbers were picked while wearing by bull mask.
LET'S GIVE PROBABILITIES TO THE FOLLOWING EVENTS
a) In 2014, price will visit below 100 = 10%
b) In 2014, price will visit below 200 = 20%
c) In 2014, price will visit below 300 = 30%
d) In 2014, price will visit below 400 = 40%
e) In 2014, price will visit above 500 = 40%
f) In 2014, price will visit above 750 = 10%
g) In 2014, price will visit above 1000 = 3%
h) In 2014, price will visit above 1250 = 1%
i) In 2014, price will visit above 2000 = 0.1%
j) In 2014, price will visit above 3000 = 0.01%
k) In 2014, price will visit above 4000 = 0.001%
l) In 2014, price will visit above 5000 = 0.0001%
m) In 2014, price will visit above 7000 = 0.00001%
n) In 2014, price will visit above 10000 = 0.000001%
/LET'S GIVE PROBABILITIES TO THE FOLLOWING EVENTS
These numbers were picked while wearing by bull mask.
Admittedly it makes no mathematical sense to have two sets of probabilities for the same events (that could be a good definition of schizophrenia). But, anyway:
On that day, Apr/14, the price at Bitstamp ranged from 408$ to 475$. After that day, the the price has ranged from 420$ (May/06) to 683$ (Jun/01).
So, one event for which my bullish half gave 40% probability of happening has happened ("price will go above 500$"). All the other events, for which I gave probability 40% or less, have still to happen.
So, can we wait until the end of the year before deciding who was too pessimist and who was too optimist?