So my 30-day analysis spreadsheet of B.EXCH is in error then? Is this FINALLY your point?
I haven't seen your spreadsheet but if "You will get a Monthly ROI of 8.155% " is your result then yes, you have probably made an error. Unless there was a dividend calculation error on twentyseventys part (which I don't think there has and I've been following it pretty closely) then the ROI on b.exch should be very close to 2%.
...and why would anyone buy and hold (for dear life) B.EXCH? (B.MINE+B.SELL) That's stupid. Do it for short terms at a profit. WATCH B.SELL's dividends (esp. lack thereof) like a hawk... it's a HOLD or EXIT signal.
Nobody would buy and hold b.exch. That is not how you play the game. You buy b.exch and sell either b.mine or b.sell depending on which one you think is overpriced.
There were no dividends for b.sell because the last difficulty increase was less than 6% meaning no leftover change when adjusting the b.mine "daily dividend fund" back to 200 days.
FYI what you dismiss as "predicting the future" I subsume as statistical analysis.
What you "subsume" as statistical analysis I call astrology. Please buy a usb miner or something and get a better idea of how the whole mining process works because you seem pretty ignorant on the subject.
Why bother predicting? OBSERVE INSTEAD.
Can you make money observing?
The entire point of the derivative is predicting the future and getting paid for it.
If B.SELL misses more dividends in a row, that's the signal to exit all positions while there are still weak hands in the game.
It doesn't matter if b.sell receives a dividend the next jump or not (highly unlikely it doesn't as bitcoinwisdom is estimating 12% in 4 days).
98% of the money put in to the derivative will be given back as dividends regardless of the difficulty.