Of course he is right, to a degree. Quantitative and technical analysis are useless unless integrated into a broader narrative (see S&P's models for rating mortgage backed securities back in 2006... the math wasn't wrong but it existed in a vacuum away from the broader narrative so it didn't appropriately capture the full range of contingencies). The question is, which one should lead (and is this a fixed answer)? Should you come up with a narrative and the test it against the technical analysis? Or should you use the technical analysis and charts to try to identify a trend and thereafter come up with an explanation? Or do you just entirely wing it by your balls, like most of us, and then come up with a series of post hoc rationalizations thereafter to explain why you did what you did so you can sleep at night.

P.S. -- Late August/early September should be a great time. It is possible we'll get the ETF by then (probably not, but possible), the broader economy usually starts to hit the s----er around this time (far enough away from tax return spending sprees and Christmas with no holidays coming up), and, most importantly, student loans drop. The latter, I think, would be an even bigger deal if we had a less sketchy swaps market. Imagine, if you are a student, being able to at least somewhat safely secure a fixed rate on the student loans dedicated to living expenses several months down the road (because it all hits at once) and as such being able to counteract the impact of interest accruing during your studies (for graduate students that happens). It really is too good to be true and people would find a way to get screwed, but it would be nice.

Oh yea, and actually most importantly, China's economy is starting to look terrible and their social institutions appear to be fracturing. Yea, we'll get a run.