Can anyone make a case that the price will not be at least twice this level within 90 days after COIN lists?
If not, let's assume it is so. If there is a 50% chance of listing by November 8th, and the best estimator of the February 8th price without COIN is the current price, then the expected gain by 8 Feb is 50%.
That's roughly 100% annually. It is a very very low estimate of the expectation of holding. It may underestimate holding time however.
If you know anyone who can do without some non-zero amount of cash today, with the expectation of a 50% gain by 8 Feb, you should inform them, or you are no friend.
In other words, I'm done accumulating BTC for a while. (Still working on XMR though.)
I think my brain might be a bit fuzzy today. But why does your last sentence read like you spent the previous sentences explaining why you think the price is going down? If you think the price is going up, why be done accumulating?