Post
Topic
Board Speculation
Re: Which profession has the best chance of predicting Bitcoin prices?
by
elux
on 22/07/2014, 22:35:02 UTC
For example, if there was a psychologist, a computer programmer, a mathematician, and an economist, who do you think would have the best chance of correctly predicting the price of Bitcoin over time?

This feels a bit like asking which profession is better for building a house. Bricklayer, carpenter, plumber or electrician? (Pick one.)

You can do better with hammer and saw than hammer alone.

I put my money on applied bayesian decision theory with mathematics, psychology, computer science, programming, behavioral economics and game theory.

Accurate time series forecasting is hard. Instead, think big picture: Divide the utility of Bitcoin by the chance of success.

Conclusion: Bitcoin is undervalued. Prediction for the price of Bitcoin over time: Up.