Post
Topic
Board Pools
Re: [1450 TH] BitMinter.com [1% PPLNS,Pays TxFees +MergedMining,Stratum,GBT,vardiff]
by
christhegoth
on 24/07/2014, 04:54:17 UTC
Just because a graph has peaks and troughs does not mean it is systematic.  Any "two-week cycle" you are seeing is something your mind is imposing on the data.  Do a Fourier analysis and I am pretty sure you will find there is no reliable pattern.  I can say this with conviction because it is a random event and by definition will have no pattern.



That 10 day bad patch, clearly shown on the graph, is a certain width. Compare it with other peaks & troughs & there is something there.

However, if it's only 10 days long ( for example ) then any pool-jumping will be pointless.

If you're above average for a month that's worth a look at.

Luck-wise for the past 2 months we've been average. We gained the lead we have due to a 2 month-ish period before then where we had good luck. The gradient on the bottom graph shows the changes. Which is differentiation, not Fourier.

We had a steeper gradient 2 months back to get to the gap between green & yellow we now have. That gap has stayed fairly constant in size since, which clearly shows us shifting back to average ( or it would have got bigger or smaller ).

It still means you have to use monthly averages to get a real view of what's going on.