Since the metrics are quite soft methods, lots of 'educated guesswork' will be involved in interpreting the fall of gox to the accounts. Besides, 1/3 most plausible scenarios still includes the goxcoins that are just seized by USGov. Another scenario is that the keys are temporarily lost but may be partially recovered. Only the 2011 thief/hack/ponzi scenario means that the coins were dispersed then, and double-accounted ever since.

Since we are talking "only" about 6% of the coins existing now, the impact is less drastic than you would think. Every month, the # of people in the categories changes by 10% to 100%.

Since the metrics are quite soft methods, lots of 'educated guesswork' will be involved in interpreting the fall of gox to the accounts. Besides, 1/3 most plausible scenarios still includes the goxcoins that are just seized by USGov. Another scenario is that the keys are temporarily lost but may be partially recovered. Only the 2011 thief/hack/ponzi scenario means that the coins were dispersed then, and double-accounted ever since.

Since we are talking "only" about 6% of the coins existing now, the impact is less drastic than you would think. Every month, the # of people in the categories changes by 10% to 100%.