I disagree.
In your pencil analogy, to be realisitic it would be " the pencil MAY be free if you have the TOOLS to sharpen it". The TOOLS here are compliance with regulation rules, exchange risks and etc... You get the point.
OR the business can just buy this pencil at a price. The price will only be more competitive in the future as more competitors coming in.
The bottom line is the pencil is still alot cheaper than buying it from MC/VISA.
To gain merchant acceptance you must focus on their point of view. There is no downside in "using this payment method" only upside. And there is no extra work being involved which let businesses focus on what they're doing best.
I can definitely see your point. Bitpay and Coinbase offer great deals
and keep the automated system businesses are used to. So I think at this point, most businesses will probably choose Bitpay and Coinbase, just because they don't want to learn something new just yet. Which is fine! Like you said, they can focus on what they do best. But also, if Bitcoin becomes more popular (especially if/when people start trusting it as its own currency) businesses might want to learn how they can be in total control of their money. Maybe sharpening the pencil themselves will become more and more just another casual part of their business procedures.