Ninjastic
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Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
by
drez
on 30/07/2014, 14:15:36 UTC
Quote from: ensurance982 on July 30, 2014, 02:09:45 PM
Quote from: bangersdad on July 30, 2014, 02:03:08 PM
Quote from: drez on July 30, 2014, 01:33:26 PM
I'm just a newbie,  but I've been watching this forum for bit and have been watching the emotional swings on an hourly basis and just wanted to put something out there.   Now people may laugh at technical analysis as it applies to bitcoin,  but I think it works when there is little mega news like there has been the past month or so.   If you look at Finex (since they are one of the big volume drivers lately)  from June 2nd to July 1st and draw the top resistance line (674 and 654),  and then use June 13 to the 24th to draw your bottom channel line (573 and 567) you will se the short term down trend we are on.  Draw a horizontal line on June 24th and that will show you the 566 resistance line.  If 566 holds we are following a descending triangle and it will bounce between the top resistance slope sline and the horizontal line at 566.  If it breaks 566  then I would expect support to rally around 543.  Now while I'm currently in a short from 630,  I am long on bitcoin in general.  Watch for the chart to break one or both of these patterns over the next few days or weeks,  hopefully it will break one of the resistance lines and we can go long again.


Wow...good post..i agree with your analysis. This downtrend is purely technical..it is the final action after a period of lengthy consolidation rather than the start of a new bear market..it has nothing to do with bitcoin fundamentals..a break down to $540 would be expected now to test support.i do not believe the bottom is in yet as we have not had enough volume of support.  If you are hodling - then i would advise taking a break from the charts - nothing has changed in the long term for bitcoin and its bullish. if you do want to put yourself thru the stress of constant price watching - then learn some TA to help give you a clearer picture of the market.

The only thing that bothers me is that we've basically tested support at $572 about 5 times now. And it was holding. Today's mini-crash was the first time we went back into the $560s again. Wouldn't it be a bad thing to start all over again with the next support? And hell, maybe $572 then becomes the resistance  Tongue Embarrassed

Look back at the last support line 578ish.  There are 3-5 day skirmishs at that level until we broke to 575.  You'll most likely see that at 573 and then again at 566 before heading south and rallying at 540ish.  I'm taking profit in the 560's then buying if we can stay above 540ish.  Else more charting.