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Many people cite
7 transactions per second (tps) as the limit for 1 MB blocks, but
3 tps is probably more accurate.
Here's a chart that uses extrapolation to estimate the dates when the bitcoin network would reach the blocksize limit (3 tps or 7 tps) if historical growth rates hold. If we witness another "growth spurt," I expect we will approach 3 tps on several days and the discussions with regards to increasing the blocksize will become more focussed.
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Yes I agree. This combined with the threat of an alt-coin, not encumbered by a static blocksize limit, rising up the charts should focus the debate and could lead to a consensus in the Bitcoin community. I am of the belief that Bitcoin will weather this and make the necessary hard fork but it may well take reaching the limit and a good "kick in the pants" from an alt-coin to achieve the necessary consensus. As for which alt-coin I have to agree with
aminorex that XMR (Monero) as the leading CryptoNote coin is a good candidate to deliver the necessary "kick in the pants".