Ugh. Said I was going to bow out of this thread after making my point repeatedly and crossing swords with that vile idiot yonce. But it won't go away from my 'new replies'.

I wouldn't take that bet, even if I did bet, and I am almost certain it is a ponzi. I don't get why people think the regular payouts give it any kind of legitimacy. They don't. Ponzis carry on, paying out nicely, until they don't. Then it all falls apart overnight. What determines how long they keep going is 1) how many more people get signed up and 2) how fast they pay out the new money this brings. 120 more days is quite possible.

Does anyone have any idea about 1? It only takes one $50,000 'investor' to allow them to play for time for quite a while if most people are testing the water with $20 or $100.

And has anyone tried blockchain analysis to try to figure out where the money is coming from, if exchanges are even involved at any point?

Here's one last thing to think about. IF it's a ponzi, then you can expect the people running it to be dishonest in more than one way. That's not a stretch, right? Well, they have your email address, and your password. And lots of people reuse passwords. So if you're not 100% confident these guys are as pure as the driven snow, you might want to change that password.

EDIT: the payouts of finished contracts don't fundamentally alter things. Sure it's a bit more they've got to cover, especially if a whale is cashing out. If - it looks like plenty of people reinvest because oh, it's proven itself now. If they do cash out, it just means they have to sign up a few more people.