So SecondMarket hasn't bought shit for over 3 months now.
Looks like it. Should probably worry those who believe that the listing of an ETF automatically means new price surge.
You may be right with that. But couldn't a real ETF be another investment vehicle serious investors want to use in order to get their Bitcoin? What are the advantages over SecondMarket in this case? (compared to e.g. the Winklevoss' COIN)
The advantage of an ETF is that it is accessible not only to high-net worth individuals, at your regular broker. I think it'll help a lot, but it will depend a lot on the circumstances of when it is launched because the sentiment/price environment will dictate demand.
Spot on (as usual). ETF listing will be a major chance, but it's just that: a chance. If demand doesn't match the offer at first, price will not do anything.
The *prospect* of the ETF is long priced in, the actual effect of buying pressure coming from it remains a possibility - a good one though, I'll admit.
Yeah I really think in the current state of Bitcoin that shuns all the good news that occur, an ETF would most likely cause a $15 rallye and then drop back $20... I guess they should launch in winter or when things have changed in Bitcoins ecosystem.