Monero price is not cheap even now, but it will not stay this cheap for long
Why i have a bad feeling of a trap?
And what do you mean "not stay this cheap for long?". Do you confirm the fact the price is low or you mean that it will be cheaper?
I had trouble understanding this too. Maybe its a typo? If not, I think what Risto means is that XMR is not cheap
short term as there are still some sell pressure that can keep going for about 10 days; but it is cheap
long term as the deficit is growing super-exponentially.
Otherwise, great post risto! thanks a lot!
Great post indeed... I dont think it was a typo, for me XMR price is fair right now because there is little real, tangible utility like with Bitcoin where you directly buy goods and services, but because the way XMR block reward is permanently decreasing and exponentially more people are coming to XMR, the power of the small speculators that are driving the price low right now in the hope of re-buying even lower later is diminishing so quickly most wont be able to rebuy and will have to re-enter at losses.
1. Monero's adoption is currently 275 newcomers per day (2.2% increase per day).
I think your numbers are way off based on
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=583449.msg7822527;topicseen#msg7822527 :
| 13.7 | 10.8 | Remark |
| Reddit Subscribers | 512 | 600 | Last week only ~15 new users |
| People on IRC | 150+ | 157 | all time high 180 |
| Forum topic pages | 497 | 590 | |
| Volume in BTC (today) | 90 | 92 | Poloniex |
From this numbers I can only see
only 20% increase in new users in last month - less than 0.7% increase per day meaning your numbers are
70% off. Number of transaction is one more indicator that shows stagnation. Trend is not in a high acceleration mode and based this numbers I think we are going to slowly grind lower to the next support 0.0025-0.003 or stay in this area 0.003-0.004 for some time until lower daily inflation create shortages or adoption accelerates (marketing).
lmao, these social numbers mean nothing, if they meant doge would have surpassed LTC by now, but no, its dead. The numbers used in rpietila analysis are based on real metrics by the monero team, detailed in the last
Missive, and they were very conservative before.
Metrics actually are only relevant for their time. A small change in sentiment (within even 1 day) can overwhelm any amount of demand. If buyers turn to sellers (for any unpredictable reasons, but not predicting that they will) the pressure will be immediately negative.
This has happened many times to the most promising cryptos, so just saying, it is always wise to follow current developments.