Well I am not sure about all these numbers. Is it possible rpietila got lucky with Bitcoin investing and now believes in TA? Bitcoin made many people rich, many people that never made such elaborate calculations.
I have invested in Monero because it's going to be one of only a few relevant coins and in the next year this will become more and more evident. As I have always said, our competitors are Ethereum and Bitcoin, not clone coins and litecoins.
I am disappointed that the market currently places low value on Monero, but the markets are illogical.
Yes, quite right. Markets are illogical because they are primarily driven by (weight of money) short-term profiteers. Price can appear to be moving in apposition to development and utility.
Some good projects/technology/businesses can be killed by speculator activity and sentiment. Most speculators (even in good enterprises) lose money in the long term, overall : that is what funds all development eg the purpose of the stock market etc..
Monero has a good positioning,team and niche. That gives a likelihood but not a guarantee of success.