Let's say there's a 25% chance these bubbles will repeat themselves and over the next year we'll reach >$4000 level.
Let's say there's a 50% chance we'll stagnate at an average of $500 over the next year
Let's say there's a 25% chance we'll go to $0 over the next year.
The first two are reasonable positions to take IMHO, but I don't buy the third one. I no longer consider there's
any plausible scenario where BTC goes to zero, let alone one with 25% probability.
Of course, if that's just a euphamism for BTC going down
a lot - say to double figures - then sure, that's possible. Although personally I think the probability of BTC hitting double figures for any length of time (anything more than an intra-day low) is
much, much lower than 25%
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