I lurk these forums quite frequently, and I've been hanging out since 2011. We all saw this dip coming. This is that dip where people say, "Fuck it, I'm done! It's not going to the moon EVER!" Pirate has stolen all of our money! etc..
The past is no reliable predictor of the future, but it's all we've got, so let's come up with some expected values based on intuition.
Let's say there's a 25% chance these bubbles will repeat themselves and over the next year we'll reach >$4000 level.
Let's say there's a 50% chance we'll stagnate at an average of $500 over the next year
Let's say there's a 25% chance we'll go to $0 over the next year.
0 * .25 + 0.5 * 500 + 0.25 * 4000 = $1250 expected value over the next year, for me at least.
So keep on selling and I'll keep on buying!
Bro, you have lost touch with reality. How do you jump from a 50% chance of stagnation to a 25% chance of greater than $4,000. Let me correct these numbers for you (and they aren't terrible... but just in the realm of reality).
5% chance of $1,000 to $1,500 at the end of the year
30% chance of $700 to $900 at the end of the year
15% chance of $600 to $700 at the end of the year
15% chance of $500 to $600 at the end of the year
15% chance of $400 to $500 at the end of the year
15% chance of $300 to $400 at the end of the year
5% chance of below $300 at the end of the year
You can shift any of these numbers give or take 5 to 10%, but that's it. There's money to be had... not fortunes.