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Re: [1450 TH] BitMinter.com [1% PPLNS,Pays TxFees +MergedMining,Stratum,GBT,vardiff]
by
marcus72ch
on 14/08/2014, 16:14:25 UTC
Quote from: organofcorti on August 14, 2014, 02:42:49 PM
Quote from: TaggedYa on August 14, 2014, 11:21:20 AM
Quote from: organofcorti on August 14, 2014, 08:50:49 AM
Quote from: TaggedYa on August 14, 2014, 07:55:45 AM
Quote from: organofcorti on August 14, 2014, 04:25:49 AM
Quote from: iplabs on August 14, 2014, 04:03:05 AM
The mathematical probability of hitting 2 blocks in the 99th cumitive distribution factor is astronomical, roughly the same as hitting 2 at <1, not quite the same as the 99th is infinite since 100% can never be achieved.

I'm not really sure what you mean, but by definition the lower tail 0.99 CDF occurs when an event is expected to occur one time in 100.

If that's for one block, it will require total work of 4.60517 times the network difficulty. If it's for two blocks, it will require total work of 6.638352 times the network difficulty.

In the first case we would expect this to happen once in one hundred blocks; in the second case once in two hundred blocks.

That's not even close to infinite.

Actually it is multiplicative not additive.  Thus it is one in 10,000.  Which if you extrapilate out at the same difficulty means it should happen about once in 25 months.  I.E. hardly a once in the life of the universe event.

No, it's not. By definition, a CDF of 0.99 is a one in a hundred occurrence, whether the event involves one block or 10 blocks or a thousand blocks. 

We are not discussing one event.  We are discussing 2 events and now a third.  Yes a CDF of 0.99 is one in a hundred.  However the chance of 2 CDF 0.99 events occurring back to back is one in Ten Thousand.  The site does not calculate the CDF of multiple blocks.

So it's two events each with 0.99 CDF? Why not just say so then?

So and now since again over 85% how high is the chance to get another 90+% ?

Sorry, but this kind of math is somehow off from reality in my opinion. The last 2 weekends I was playing a bet high/low game with 80-100.000 satoshis as capital starting from 1 with a chance of 1/3 and always doubled my bet each time I lost, so you would think with 100.000 you should have enough to double till you win again, but actually both weeks I lost all.

the chance for that might be higher than 3 over 90% CDF blocks in a row, but in the end it's just that,

Luck is a bitch and end of the story.  Cool

I did not really get the matter with the CDF for blocks till Dr.Haribo explained me once in the chat and I lost around 40€ last week, so I'm not happy, but I do not think that luck cares about mathematical probabilities in the end.