Post
Topic
Board Securities
Re: [HAVELOCK] PETAMINE - 1,150 TH/S HASH RATE (1GH/S per Unit)
by
jjdub7
on 15/08/2014, 10:18:11 UTC
They seem to be in freefall right now... to the people (ie Puppet) who have been incredibly bearish on PETA, at what point, if any, do you see these becoming a good investment?

At the point where they pay the average mining bond equivalent of dividends at ASICminer's tube cost-per-GH/s price.   That price happens to be around the current B.MINE price - https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=99497.msg8329684#msg8329684, so my price floor on PETA is therefore going to be in the 60-87k satoshi range, assuming the difficulty levels out again after this bump and based on future difficulty movements this period and onward.

Here's a spreadsheet that linearizes the past 3 difficulty intervals (since they were relatively small) for PETA's output against the new ASICMINER tube and also against B.MINE: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ZoapItfWpxHxWObZ0RxTHrU8Ae8ox28GmfUr2wD-QMA/edit?usp=sharing

Note the analysis factors in electrical costs for the AM tube running at 900 W for BTC at $515 with electricity costing $0.12 per kW-hr.  The linear regression model depreciates the dividends more aggressively (56-60k satoshi range), while the difficulty bump (estimated for next period at 17.7% as of now by bitcoinwisdom) shows for more realistic average payouts based on known difficulty forecasts (my high forecast for 87k satoshi).  You could use bitcoincharts' estimate of 9.765% for a more risky price forecast (i.e. possibly overpriced) if you're still bullish on PETA.  Keep in mind that the yields assume the current BTC-USD price and electrical cost ceteris paribus across the model.

TL;DR if you're not pricing against the newest technology, you'll consistently see your assets are performing poorly, and you'll often end up losing on the price depreciation as competing capital seeks substitutes.

DC - I own no shares of PETA and have no plans to enter into the market within the next 2 difficulty cycles outside of the price range I have specified above.