Or am I being naive for considering this the most likely reason for what we're seeing now?
Just in case it's not a rhetorical question: No, man, this is happening on multiple exchanges, so whatever we are seeing is real. Of course, there are some who can't accept reality when it doesn't suit them and will try explaining it away with conspiracy "manipulation".
reality is manipulated.
It is, but only some people can manipulate the market, not easy to manipulate market.
May be they have big news, we don't know much about it, so they are dropping down
the price to buy cheap coins, people normally sell on panic when they see price dropping fast.