So why is it so hard to entertain the possibility that we're seeing the breach of the dam as a result of built-up selling pressure? We had a good rally to $680, from there on things started looking difficult, selling pressure was extremely subdued at first (for a number of reasons, but imo, mainly because the "hodl" mantra actually took hold - no pun intended), but without further fiat inflow and subsequent positive price action, it is only a matter of time before the sell-offs kick in.
Or am I being naive for considering this the most likely reason for what we're seeing now?
You're probably right
this time, but I want to make sure this possibility is on everyone's radar because the odds of it happening go up every day.
That the Federal Reserve Bank of NY stole 300+ tons of gold from Germany is not an imaginary conspiracy theory.
They promised to hold those bars. Not an equivalent value - the specific serial numbered one which Germany originally deposited.
When keeping that promise became inconvenient they defaulted.
This is the MO of Wall Street, and they will not change their ways when they get involved with Bitcoin.
What I expect to happen is that Bitlicenses are going to eventually force all Bitcoin startups to get acquired by banks, because Bitlicenses are impossible to comply with and banks are immune from their provisions. One day after Coinbase has been bought out, their users are going to log in and have to check a box indicating they've read the new Terms of Service. Buried deeply in the legalese where nobody will actually read it will be the provision that says they "might" rehypothecate your deposits.
tl;dr: Hold your own coins and don't store them with third parties, because if you don't you'll eventually discover you don't actually own any.