Re: What is more Likely to happen the next couple of months ?
Well, I will deepen my impression of the current market situation a bit. This Wall Observer Thread cracks me up.
In the past months we had a lot of of people supposing an accelerated trendline. I could never see this trendline before 2014, where it got quickly broken. The former touches of this non-existing trendline, were carried by an older,(5x) proven and maturate trendline.
The price was driven high by expectation of a soon incoming bubble. This expection was slowly destroyed from 680,00 downwards. After breaking the imaginary accelerated trendline and the hope of an incoming bubble, frustration has taken the place of hope. People started to sell and the stone begun to roll downwards now building up his own dynamic.
I think the bigger money(institutional buyer etc.) is waiting on lower support levels. First support is given in the ~400, but I don't see that the fall must stop there. I think somewhere between 440-300 the price will be caught up.
All the talk of manipulation conspiracies to me does not look more than, simple price had no support at this levels (for now) and a few clever players are making money with delusional hot bullish fever.
The posted scenario is my favorite probable. But as I said earlier, there are lot more possible ways market will go, even the extremely bearish ones. I see no reason to fulfill such horrible scenario, but one could be simple: overspeculation in the past years.
In the past months we had a lot of of people supposing an accelerated trendline. I could never see this trendline before 2014, where it got quickly broken. The former touches of this non-existing trendline, were carried by an older,(5x) proven and maturate trendline.
The price was driven high by expectation of a soon incoming bubble. This expection was slowly destroyed from 680,00 downwards. After breaking the imaginary accelerated trendline and the hope of an incoming bubble, frustration has taken the place of hope. People started to sell and the stone begun to roll downwards now building up his own dynamic.
I think the bigger money(institutional buyer etc.) is waiting on lower support levels. First support is given in the ~400, but I don't see that the fall must stop there. I think somewhere between 440-300 the price will be caught up.
All the talk of manipulation conspiracies to me does not look more than, simple price had no support at this levels (for now) and a few clever players are making money with delusional hot bullish fever.
The posted scenario is my favorite probable. But as I said earlier, there are lot more possible ways market will go, even the extremely bearish ones. I see no reason to fulfill such horrible scenario, but one could be simple: overspeculation in the past years.
I agree with that, let me add a quote from Risto's thread before Risto delete it (he like to do that)
I'm starting to be pessimistic about it all, and I even think we may not witness next Bitcoin bubble in near future... Here's why:
Sadly, I realize Bitcoin is "liberalist wet dream", but can easiliy failed one. Combination of ignorant mass which is easily manipulated + interests of elite that is state and banksters, and I see it may really stay on the margin of worldwide economy, say it takes only about 10-20% of electronic payments and money transfers worldwide. That's not a win, that is huge fail compared to what we were thinking it may become.
So I played the Devil's advocate this time, and ask me what do I think about alts? Right now, they're fuckin' dead, including "silver to bitcoin's gold". Only chance for them is to rise along with Bitcoin. Astronomic rise of Darkcoin was not the healthy demand by the masses for spending it, it was speculator's game. After the initial boom and crash, we will see a slow decline, every fairly successful altcoin has the same history and future: One bubble and then the second one purely dependent on Bitcoin.
That was just my analysis and discussion is welcome. I just don't wanna hear I'm trolling or fudding, believe me I'm the one who was tirelessly promoting the whole story from the early days of 2012, and I made quite bucks out from it, but I'm starting to thing the "golden age" of cryptos is over.
Community is not focused and I doubt we can heal the economy and win the war this way.
- All the geeks and early adopters are in. Who is still left-out is ignorant mass which can't comprehend Bitcoin incentives over Paypal, nor they can see it actually heals the worldwide economy. Yes, we're waiting for a big investors too, but I doubt they will enter such unregulated market which is public enemy nr. 1 of states and banking system. Finally, billionares are billionares just because of the corrupted fiat money system, and actually they kind of chopping off the branch they're sitting on.
- Price of Bitcoin: new Bitcoins are released every day and we need about 1.5mil$/day just to keep the price stagnant. It's really not the same like Bitcoin was 100$ before the previous bubble. Much more fiat is needed to fuel the rise. You can see it as 5x more people is needed to be aware of it all. I doubt there is 5x more people in cryptos now than there were in October 2013.
- Remember, previous Bitcoin bubble was fuelled mostly by Mt.Gox failure (someone artificially made USD credit on their site and was constantly buying) + "China is coming" effect. Those were 2 big (positive) circumstances, and it was pure luck for Bitcoin's price, so it wasn't too much about the real demand, it was about stealing and speculator's game.
- Too many altcoin parasites which are dispersing energy (and money). Actually I realised maybe even it would be better for worldwide economy that Bitcoin stayed closed source, forged in honest very small community of most advanced developers.
- Big holders may decide that they exit the game and effectively kill the price to the ground. Specially, I am affraid of 1 mil BTC owned by Satoshi. Would be good for Bitcoin if he is not among us anymore so the private keys are lost
Sadly, I realize Bitcoin is "liberalist wet dream", but can easiliy failed one. Combination of ignorant mass which is easily manipulated + interests of elite that is state and banksters, and I see it may really stay on the margin of worldwide economy, say it takes only about 10-20% of electronic payments and money transfers worldwide. That's not a win, that is huge fail compared to what we were thinking it may become.
So I played the Devil's advocate this time, and ask me what do I think about alts? Right now, they're fuckin' dead, including "silver to bitcoin's gold". Only chance for them is to rise along with Bitcoin. Astronomic rise of Darkcoin was not the healthy demand by the masses for spending it, it was speculator's game. After the initial boom and crash, we will see a slow decline, every fairly successful altcoin has the same history and future: One bubble and then the second one purely dependent on Bitcoin.
That was just my analysis and discussion is welcome. I just don't wanna hear I'm trolling or fudding, believe me I'm the one who was tirelessly promoting the whole story from the early days of 2012, and I made quite bucks out from it, but I'm starting to thing the "golden age" of cryptos is over.
Community is not focused and I doubt we can heal the economy and win the war this way.
of course I don't agree to "the crypto is over" thing, but think he addressed solid points.